Inflation Stalls in February

Official figures have revealed that February saw UK inflation come to a complete standstill. Last month, the overall inflation rate dropped to 0%, marking the first time since records began that inflation in the UK stood completely still.

In January, inflation had progressed 0.3% compared to the same period in 2014. However, in February the year-on-year inflation rate had fallen to zero, leaving inflation at a net standstill compared to a year ago. The drop to zero was facilitated by price changes in a number of key sectors, including furniture and furnishings, food, and recreational products.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which tracks inflation, has kept records since 1988. In the 27 years since the CPI began, this is the first time that the UK inflation rate has been shown to have dropped to zero and remained unchanged overall across a one year period.

The difference between January’s 0.3% figure and February’s 0% was also much more stark than most forecasters expected. The majority of experts predicted a drop in the region of just 0.1%. The actual fall in the inflation rate exceeded this estimate three times over.

An alternative measure of inflation, the Retail Prices Index (RPI), saw the UK inflation rate drop from 1.1% in January to just 1% in February. The RPI, which almost always gives a higher inflation figure than the CPI, works in essentially the same way as its counterpart but with some key differences. Both examine a set variety of goods, compare their prices at present to their cost one year ago, and use the difference to work out the rate of inflation. However, the CPI essentially looks at the cost of retail goods rather than household costs. The RPI includes things like council tax, rental rates, and mortgage repayments which are not used by the CPI, and this is why the figures are usually different.

According to the CBI, a prominent business lobby group, the effect of the inflation standstill is not likely to be a significant reduction in the cost of living. The group’s director of economics, Rain Newton-Smith, said “Despite inflation dropping to zero, it is unlikely we will see falling prices for a prolonged period, particularly as the pressure from lower oil prices fades.”

However, Newton-Smith noted that there were some decided consequences to this development. In particular, he said, “With the Monetary Policy Committee still alert to the risk of very low inflation becoming entrenched, a rise in interest rates anytime soon seems off the cards.”

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